Cyclone Mocha Expected to Hit Bangladesh or Myanmar Coast on May 12 or 13, Says IMD
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that Cyclone Mocha, currently building up over the Southeast Bay of Bengal, is likely to turn into a severe to very severe cyclonic storm after May 8. The IMD predicts that it will hit the Bangladesh or Myanmar coast on May 12 or May 13. Senior IMD experts have admitted that predicting the path and landfall point is difficult until the low-pressure area is formed. However, the IMD has indicated that the landfall could occur anywhere along the coastline from Odisha to Myanmar, including West Bengal.
According to the IMD, the GFS model indicates that Cyclone Mocha will move nearly northeastwards towards the Bangladesh coast and cross over near Chattogram area around May 13. The model also suggests that the storm could intensify to a very severe cyclonic storm category. The NCEP GFS model indicates a severe cyclonic storm around May 10 over the Andaman Islands, moving nearly northwards and crossing over Myanmar near Sittwe around May 13. Meanwhile, the ECMWF model predicts intensification into a cyclonic storm around May 11, moving north-northeastwards and crossing over the Myanmar coast near Kala-ywa around May 12.
The IMD notes that there is a large divergence among various models regarding the tract, but overall, the ECMWF and GFS group of models indicate a nearly northwards/north-northeastwards movement and crossing over southeast Bangladesh-South Myanmar coasts. KJ Ramesh, former IMD director general, explains that at least eight model inputs are used, and unless the low-pressure area occurs and the location gets fixed, it is not possible to predict the exact tract.
A senior IMD official reminded that during May, cyclones generally affect the coastal areas from Orissa to Myanmar, and the Bengal coast is not risk-free. Even if the cyclone hits Bangladesh, it is expected that the coastal areas of West Bengal and south Bengal will be affected by the cyclone with high winds and rainfall. The projected Bangladesh landfall location is around 250 km away from the West Bengal border.
The Bengal government is getting prepared for the cyclone. Cyclone shelters are being readied, and around Rs 50 crore will be released to the irrigation department for urgent work at vulnerable areas. The chief secretary has also started talking with the more risk-prone districts and areas.